New polling suggests that Steve Hilton, Tom Steyer, and Eric Swalwell are among the leading candidates in the race for governor of California as the state’s June primary approaches.
Under California’s primary election system, all candidates compete on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the November general election regardless of party affiliation. The large number of Democratic candidates in the race could divide the party’s typical share of the vote — roughly 60% in statewide elections — making the outcome less predictable.
Political consultant Paul Mitchell said the crowded field could split Democratic support among several candidates, allowing multiple contenders to receive relatively small percentages of the vote.
Earlier polling had shown Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, and Hilton leading the race. However, two new surveys suggest that Steyer and Swalwell are gaining traction among voters.
A poll conducted by University of California, Berkeley and Politico places Hilton in first with 19% support, followed by Steyer at 13%. Several candidates are close behind, including Swalwell, Bianco and former U.S. Representative Katie Porter, each with about 11%. Former state attorney general Xavier Becerra trails the group with 5%.
A separate poll from Emerson College also showed Hilton and Swalwell competing for the top positions.
According to political analyst Sara Sadhwani of Pomona College, some candidates gaining attention in the race have built strong national profiles through media appearances, particularly on political television programs.
Meanwhile, Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, recently warned that if lower-polling Democratic candidates remain in the race, it could hurt the party’s chances of securing a spot in the general election.
Despite the emerging frontrunners, the race remains uncertain. The Emerson College poll shows about 25% of voters undecided, while the UC Berkeley-Politico survey places the undecided share at 17%.
Some voters say the crowded field has made it difficult to stay engaged with the campaign. Daniel Tamae, a resident of Burbank, California, said the number of candidates has created a sense of political fatigue and made it harder for voters to keep track of the race.